A strong storm over the Canadian maritimes continues to spin off the coast and will send weak disturbances and some moisture into the Capital Region and upstate New York through Thursday. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible late this afternoon into the evening and computer forecast models are starting to trend slightly south and east of the region for the potential Christmas weekend snowstorm.
Here is the complete forecast for Albany and the Capital Region of upstate New York:
TODAY – Some very isolated spots of freezing drizzle around the Capital Region this morning will end by 10 AM and skies will remain cloudy into the afternoon as a potent piece of energy and associated moisture will begin to work into the region from the northeast. Scattered snow showers and flurries will break out late this afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower 30’s. Light snow will continue overnight with a light coating to an inch of snow possible in the Capital Region and 2 to 4 inches in the higher ground to the north and east of Albany.
THURSDAY – Some early morning snow showers and flurries will gradually end through mid-morning as a north-northwesterly flow of dry air takes over the Capital Region. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid 30’s. It will be a tad breezy with a northwest wind at 15 mph.
FRIDAY – Weak high pressure will nudge east into the region on Friday bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 30’s. It will be a fine day to finish any last minute Christmas shopping if you are brave enough to battle the crowds. The dry weather will continue into Christmas Eve night, with clouds slowly increasing into Saturday.
OUTLOOK – A weak ridge of high pressure will remain in control through Christmas Day keeping things dry and cold with high temperatures in the upper 20’s to near 30 degrees. By Saturday night, our attention will shift to a developing storm system in the lower Tennessee Valley and its potential to move up the east coast into the second half of the weekend. There continues to be considerable disagreement with the computer forecast models as the GFS has a flatter solution that sends the low south and out to sea, the European tracks the low right up the coast as a nor’easter bringing a considerable snowfall, and the Canadian is in between these two tracks with a hit only for southeastern New England.
Due to this significant difference in model guidance, there is low confidence for a significant snow event in the Capital Region at this time. One thing that has come into agreement is the timing of the storm, which is expected to be in the Sunday-Monday time frame. There is still plenty of time to watch this and models could change and trend toward one or another solution. Stay tuned for more on this developing weather story through the week. In the wake of this storm, a dry and seasonable weather pattern is expected to take hold over the eastern half of the United States into the middle of next week.
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