A stubborn upper level low pressure system remains stuck just to the north of the Capital Region keeping our weather rather unsettled as disturbances continue to rotate around the low, bringing clouds and scattered flurries and snow showers. Lake effect snow showers will also continue to swing across the Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks. Computer forecast models still have no clear solution on the weekend snow storm to potentially impact the east coast. Share your thoughts on today’s weather in the comments section below this article.
Here is the complete forecast for Albany and the Capital Region of upstate New York:
TODAY – A lake effect snow band has reached into parts of the Capital Region this morning, and it has been moving slightly northward, oriented right down the Mohawk Valley. In this band, heavy snowfall is creating whiteout conditions and treacherous travel as snowfall rates are near an inch per hour. Total accumulations are expected to be around an inch or so in the immediate Capital Region and closer to 3 inches in the western Mohawk Valley where the band is a little stronger. It is difficult to forecast what these bands will do throughout the day, but expect varying weather conditions around the region, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s.
TONIGHT – Lake effect activity should shift north of the region tonight, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures dropping into the upper teens. The western Adirondacks will see the greatest chance of any snow showers, but no significant accumulation is expected.
FRIDAY – The flow will shift back to the west, but it is unclear how significant lake effect activity will be due to varying inversion heights. It should remain dry in the Capital Region with mostly sunny skies developing and temperatures warming into the upper 20’s to near 30 degrees.
OUTLOOK – There continues to be a huge spread in the computer forecast models on the storm system that will develop in the deep south on Saturday and track up the east coast on Sunday. The GFS continues to show a track offshore and went way out to sea with last night’s 0Z run, which gave nobody any snow. But the European model changed its course and shot the storm right up the coast with its overnight run, which is concerning because this model is very good in the short range, but it is an outlier with this solution. A track that remains offshore is favored at this time, but we must keep snow showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday in anticipation of a closer track. Into early next week, another upper level low looks to park itself over the region, keeping clouds and cold temperatures in place right into Christmas. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
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