We will see two very cold days and then a weather system approach the state with the potential to produce a wintry mix on Thursday. Models are hinting at a bigger storm system this weekend that could produce significant wintry precipitation if everything came together just right.
Snow will continue to fall across the mountains and we could see an additional 3-6 inches with high ratios today, along with high winds and very cold wind chills. The snow should lessen some by tonight.
The next event will move towards the area Wednesday night through Thursday. Recent model trends have been to shift the track of the system a bit north which would result in a quicker changeover to plain rain during the day Thursday after a brief period of snow/ice. This setup is lacking a cold strong surface high pressure over the northeast, so it looks like it will be driven by evaparational cooling and the exact track of the system. As of this morning, the system looks to bring less wintry precipitation to the state than thought yesterday, but that could change if the models shift the track of the system a bit south again. Either way, I do think most of us will see the precip start as snow quickly change to ice and then to rain. The further west you are the longer the changeover will take. Worst case scenario, this system could bring a few inches of snow and a little ice on top of it.
Another storm system will take shape off the southeast coast by Saturday. A cold front will stall off the east coast and as a disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream rides east, we could see cyclogenesis occur off the southeast coast Saturday. As you would imagine 5-6 days out, the models are all over the place with this system with some models and some runs showing a heavy snow event, other heavy snow for the west and rain for the east, and others showing the system completely staying off shore. The synoptic setup is not perfect for our area as we lack a clear, strong 500mb low near Newfoundland and we also see enough troughiness near the northern plains/Great Lakes to where a further west track could occur. But if it is timed correctly, it could be a significant winter storm for our area this weekend. Stay tuned.
We will continue to see a jet stream pattern that has a block over north-central Canada, with troughs in the NW and SE US. This will allow for some warming in the central US, but a continuation of colder than normal temps in the southeast through the New Year.