Computer models hinting at a developing storm system on Thanksgiving as Arctic air pours in North Texas :
Thanksgiving Holiday week has begun across Ft Worth, the busiest travel time across the United States.
The National Weather Service office in Ft Worth has noticed an interesting trend over the last four or five computer models runs. They are hinting at a possible strong upper level storm system taking shape over the Desert Southwest, just as the Arctic air mass enters North Texas.
This could mean either a cold rain event, or possibly worse, depending on how much cold air pours in as this feature approaches and the strength of the approaching storm system.
At the moment the GEM, NOGAPS, ECMWF and GFS computer models are all in disagreement on both the arrival time of the Arctic air in North Texas and the specific Thanksgiving Day forecast. They do agree that Ft Worth will experience at least 48 hours of Arctic air and the coldest temperatures thus far this fall.
A fairly rare event will take place, known as “tropopause folding” on Wednesday into Thursday. Today’s headline picture shows that stable air from about 60,000 feet will sink into the lower atmosphere, causing lift and spinning of the air with height, potentially building a potent and troublesome storm.
Below is a portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service office in Ft Worth concerning the event:
- “THERE WERE HINTS IN THE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT THE MAIN UPPER
- TROUGH AXIS WOULD HANG BACK AND NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
- EVENING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SEEMINGLY TREND IN THIS
- DIRECTION TODAY…WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKING SHARPER AND
- MORE POTENT”.
Look at the current Thanksgiving Day Forecast from the National Weather Service:
At the moment, the official forecast for Thanksgiving Day calls for Mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain with temperatures ranging from a morning low of about 32 to 34 degrees with a daytime high only near 45 degrees with a stiff north wind of about 15 to 20 MPH, with higher gusts, putting wind chill factors in the twenties during a good portion of the day.
Further updates will be posted as the week progresses as the model forecasts will get a better handle on the upcoming event on late Monday into Tuesday .
Before the “Big Chill” arrives, Sunday through late afternoon Wednesday will feature pleasant fall temperatures will variable clouds, breezy conditions with possible showers as temperatures range from near 60 degrees with afternoon highs in the 70 to 78 degree range.
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