T minus 6 days until Black Friday, are you ready? Are you ready, for the mother of all sales days? What are you going to be doing, where are you going to be, on Black Friday?
Most analysts are predicting that Black Friday will positively impact the stock market. Others are predicting that it will serve as a spark plug to the engine that drives the economy. What does black Friday mean to you? I can describe Black Friday in one word: over-hyped! Okay, two words.
Why would I speak negatively about one of the biggest sales days of the year?
1. Black Friday primarily impacts the retail sector only
Black Friday is 90% retail; 10% manufacturing, and not much else. It cannot and typically does not lead to tons of long term jobs. It is only for a season.
2. Black Friday is more of a tradition than it is a barometer
People lay out on sidewalks to be the first in line for a great deal, but how many of them come back and shop a day, a week or a month after? Black Friday is like the father who takes his son to the opening day game of baseball season, and then never comes back again.
3. Black Friday is forecasted and discounted activity, so it may impact sales, and not revenues
My sister wanted some car purchasing advice. I told her to wait until the end of the year. That is when dealers are looking to get the current year’s cars off the lot, and they will be more inclined to deal. The reality is: deep discounting typically drives sales, no matter the industry! If retail stores were asked to report revenues, and not sales, most of the “joy” surrounding Black Friday would disappear.
4. Black Friday is not the most important shopping day of the year
Families typically shop for the holidays. Businesses typically see a lift in sales during income tax return season. These are not good indicators of economic stability and growth. Therefore, these are not the most important shopping days or times.
The most important shopping day of the year is the one when Chicago consumers are financially able to shop.
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